The social and commercial environment is complicated and uncertain. This is usually true, but it seems worse now. Dealing with all of the possible things that could happen tends to freeze people and organizations. One approach is to initiate analysis to understand and neutralize all of the barriers to survival or success. Systems analysis in all of its forms is one expression of this approach. The probable outcome of this is a growing awareness of the extreme connectivity of modern markets. A bit of analysis may make the problem seem much worse. Another approach is to simplify so that things don’t seem so uncertain and dangerous. This approach is the continuation of business process reengineering, but it has grown beyond operational management into strategy as a whole. The two approaches seem essentially opposite, but that is an illusion.
Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius—and a lot of courage—to move in the opposite direction." — E. F. Schumacker
The proper goal of any organization is to understand the systems of which they are part and then choose a few actions to focus on to thrive in the system. In other words, use complex mental models and simple actions to succeed. Many organizations try to avoid this approach. They seek to simplify the analysis and mental models too. This is one place where things can go wrong. The world is complex, full of interactions, non-linear relationships and hidden connections. These can’t be wished away. But complex problems don’t require complex solutions. Studies in complex systems suggest that rather simple actions can have profound effects. The problem is that the only way to show that an action is useful is to try it. Often this means trying many things before finding a few that work. This makes the process of finding a simple solution into a complicated process. It is a bit ironic that the path to simplicity is through complexity, but that is the way it is. Most simple things are deceptive because their simplicity is the product of their complex environment; they fit the environment so well that their effect seems simple.
The other place things go wrong is that organizations come to believe that their approach is permanently applicable – they become rigid in their ways. The complex social and market systems that we live in are not static; simple approaches that worked well in 2000 may not work well in 2012. Companies dedicated to simplicity must not let their mental models become simple. They must be regularly updating their understanding of the world and modifying their approach. Success may depend on simple actions; it rarely depends on simple minds.
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